To ud af tre industrivirksomheder vil blive ramt af toldkrig

This is evident from a survey conducted by Statistics Denmark in connection with its monthly assessment of the so-called business confidence. Here, 71 percent of the industrial companies surveyed said that they expect to be affected if the tariff war breaks out. This could happen either by their own goods becoming more expensive for the Americans, or by a European response making American goods more expensive here.

And even if it may only be about the threats from Trump, it is something that management teams have to deal with now. That is the opinion of Morten Granzau, deputy director of the Confederation of Danish Industry.

- There is great uncertainty about the coming months, and companies are facing potentially large and sudden changes.

- Although Danish business has previously shown a strong ability to handle change, the situation now requires them to act quickly and think in several possible scenarios, he says.

In Dansk Erhverv, chief economist Tore Stramer also notes that a trade war could hit Danish business across a wider spectrum. He notes, however, that overall business confidence - which also includes construction, retail and service companies - only fell from 105.2 to 104.1 in April.

A business confidence above 100 is an expression of a predominantly positive expectation for the future. But if the tariff war gets closer and the mood turns, the mood barometer could quickly change.

- A more widespread pessimism could mean that more companies will probably stop a number of activities and instead wait and see.

- Specifically, there is unfortunately a risk that more companies will cut back on investments, purchases and new hires in the current extraordinarily uncertain period we are in, says Tore Stramer.

He also predicts that banks may tighten up their lending, which in turn will slow down economic activity and growth. The business confidence report this time should be taken with the caveat that it was collected in the period from 1 to 22 April. There may therefore be a difference in the basis on which the companies have responded, depending on the current statements from Donald Trump during the period.

jel /ritzau/