Researchers: If climate goals are met, we will save up to DKK 20 billion annually on health

In a new analysis of the health benefits of achieving the national climate goals, a team of Danish researchers shows that there are such large economic benefits for society in the form of saved health costs that it can be compared with the costs of realizing the green transition.

- The main message of our analysis is that the calculated societal costs of achieving the goal of 70 percent. CO₂ reduction in 2030 is largely offset by the health savings that come with the transition through less air pollution, says Professor Jørgen Brandt, Center Director for iClimate at the Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, to Dagbladet Information.

The startling analysis was carried out by Jørgen Brandt in collaboration with Chief Physician Jakob Bønløkke, Aalborg University Hospital, Professor Eigil Kaas, Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen, and Kenneth Karlsson and Mikkel Simonsen, both system analysts at the consulting company Energy Modelling Lab.

- When it comes to the overall Danish climate goal, one often hears statements that it will be expensive. It is true that money has to be spent up front for investments in green technology, but at the same time there are a number of saved environmental effects that are often not included in these analyses, says Jørgen Brandt, who has 20 years of experience with this type of model analysis.

The costs of achieving the official climate goals have been calculated in various calculations from, among others, Ea Energianalyse, the Climate Partnership for Energy and Supply, the Climate Council and the think tank Cepos to be in the range of 13-26 billion. DKK annually from 2025 onwards. However, these calculations do not, or only to a limited extent, take into account that the green transition provides cleaner air and thus fewer health costs.

- Our calculations show that saved health costs alone as a result of lower air pollution can provide society with savings of over 10-20 billion. DKK per year, according to Information in the new analysis.

That is, a gain that is comparable to the costs of the conversion itself.

Risk for COPD and asthma

The Danish climate goals are fundamentally about reducing emissions of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases from the fossil-based energy system, transport, agriculture, etc. CO₂ emissions damage the climate, but do not in themselves give rise to respiratory diseases or other direct health damage. However, other emissions linked to the existing system do, especially small particles, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide and ozone.

The main sources of these pollutants are cars on the roads, wood-burning stoves in homes, aviation and shipping, waste incineration, agriculture and, to a lesser extent, power plants.

- The substances increase the risk of heart and circulatory disorders, and of lung diseases such as bronchitis and COPD, which particularly affect the elderly, but also risk worsening asthma, which particularly affects children and young people. Particle pollution also has an impact on the incidence of lung cancer and is estimated to be the cause of 2-300 new cases annually, says chief physician Jakob Bønløkke to Information.

- Our calculations include the impact of air pollution on mortality, the incidence of lung cancer and COPD, hospitalizations for circulatory and lung diseases and the frequency of sick days and days with reduced productivity due to respiratory diseases.

These are diseases for which the documentation of the effects of air pollution is good, and where very reliable calculations can therefore be made.

Hans Henrik Lindboe, a partner in the consulting company Ea Energianalyse, calls the research team's new analysis 'absolutely interesting and significant'.

- As the authors write, it is obviously important to include health costs when assessing the effect of climate measures, he says in a comment to Information.

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